publishing



2013 State of Journalism in America by Pew Research Center

journal

 

The Pew Research Center today released the 2013 State of Journalism in America.  The popularity of the printed press and the radio is in decline, while online media, on the other hand, is experiencing fast growth.

39% of respondents said that they saw their news yesterday from a mobile device, versus 34% in 2010.   When one takes into account all digital devices, the figure is 50%, second only to watching the news on television.  Traditional media are in decline for those who say that their source of information is the radio  (just 33%) or the newspaper (29%). There is a growing online audience  reporting that they get their news from social networks (19%), 16% by email and 8% from podcast.

The rapid growth of online information is impressive, according to the study, mainly due to access to mobile devices (31% of adults have a tablet, and 45% own a smartphone, ten points more than a year ago). More than 60% of the mobile device owners, (whether a tablet or smartphone) watch the news on these devices at least once a week, and 36% even watch the news on a daily basis.

The most popular sites to see the news is Yahoo News, in part because of its agreement with ABCNews, followed by The Huffington Post, which has risen from fourth to second place. The New York Times lost three places in the ranking.

The HuffPo is clearly the world’s first content aggregator (reproduced stories in September: 2531), and the web site is benefiting from its interactions with Facebook and Twitter.  It is followed by Dailymail.co.uk (1715), Yahoo.com (1668) and bbc.co.uk (1621).

Digital advertising revenues

In 2011, digital advertising revenues (23% of all advertising sector in the United States, up 3 points from 2011)  were exceeding advertising revenues from newspapers.   In 2016, Digital Advertising could reach 29% of the total. Although mobile advertising revenues grew by 80% compared to 2011, it only accounts for 7% of the total. According to eMarketer, in three years, it should account for 21% of total advertising revenues.

One of the problems of digital advertising media is that 64% of total revenues are concentrated in only five companies: Google, Yahoo, Facebook, Microsoft and AOL.

Video advertising grew by a huge 47% in 2012. 38% of those surveyed by Pew Research said they used their tablets to watch video once a week, 12% watch: daily. Video is already the second type of advertising, but it will compete more effectively with the banner in the coming years.

Advertising revenues of the press fell last year to $22.5 billion, with $3.3 billion consisting of online advertising (15% of total). However, for every 15 dollars lost in press advertising, online only earned one dollar.

Moderate optimism

For the first time since the crisis of 2007, the newspaper industry appears to have stabilized.   Of the 1,380 daily newspapers, 450 plan to adopt paid content plans, which together with rising paper prices and increased subscriptions, have helped stabilize the situation caused by the declining advertising.  Newspapers are cutting the number of days of publication per week, while reducing paper newsrooms, for online expansion.

For more information see: http://stateofthemedia.org/2013/overview-5/key-findings/

 

Louis Rhéaume

Infocom Analysis

Louis@infocomintelligence.com

Twitter : @InfocomAnalysis



“Livre : la papier détrôné par le numérique” est disponible sur LesNews.ca

http://lesnews.ca/technologie/19571-livre-la-papier-detrone-par-le-numerique

 

Louis Rhéaume

Infocom Intelligence

louis@infocomintelligence.com

Twitter: @InfocomAnalysis

“EBook revenues surpass hardcovers for first time report reveals” is available on Techvibes

http://www.techvibes.com/blog/ebook-revenues-surpass-hardcovers-for-first-time-report-reveals-2012-06-29

Louis Rhéaume

Infocom Intelligence

louis@infocomintelligence.com

Twitter: @InfocomAnalysis

Our new article “Appifier Becoming Serious Contender in App Industry [Interview] ” is available on Techvibes

http://www.techvibes.com/blog/appifier-becoming-serious-contender-in-app-industry-interview-2012-05-31

 

Louis Rhéaume

Infocom Intelligence

louis@infocomintelligence.com

Twitter: @InfocomAnalysis

How Social Media is transforming the News Industry [INFOGRAPHIC]

Social media has been more popular than ever with the exponential growth of Twitter, Facebook and Pinterest. It appears that what is happening in the world as traditional news outlets become increasingly less relevant to the digital generation.

Ordinary citizens are making major news stories through Twitter for example, the stories of Osama Bin LadenWhitney Houston‘s death or the Hudson River plane landing.  Professional journalists are often using Twitter to diffuse news quickly before writing up full articles.  Furthermore, online news now generates more revenue than print newspapers.

Social media is not perfect: around 50% of news consumers have received “breaking news” via social media, only to find out later it was erroneously reported.

The online education portal Schools.com did an interesting infographic on how social media is replacing traditional journalism as a news source.  Sources are:  the Washington PostPew Research Center and Reuters.

 

 

Louis Rhéaume

Infocom Intelligence

louis@infoocomintelligence.com

Twitter: @InfocomAnalysis

 

News is becoming more attractive for tablet users

According to a recent report by Distimo’s research, iPad users like games and news.  In February, the five most popular publications in the U.S. were the The Daily (an iPad-only publication), the New York TimesThe New YorkerNational Geographic and Cosmopolitan.  While some free content is available, users don’t seem to mind paying for access to their news on the iPad.  The most popular apps are games and news is one type of apps that is gaining important momentum according to Distimo: “This category is also bringing in a substantial proportion of the revenue, with over 7% of the top 200 grossing applications coming from this category.”

Source: Distimo and GigaOM

Louis Rhéaume

Infocom Intelligence

louis@infocomintelligence.com

Twitter: @InfocomAnalysis

Amazon competing with publishers, not just bookstores

[Published originally on October 17, 2011]

There was an interesting article in the NY Times about the new strategy of Amazon concerning publishing. They are more and more competing, not only with bookstores, but also with publishers. They are cutting the middleman by signing publishing contracts directly with authors. With the proliferation of tablets, ebooks are more popular than ever. Amazon can control most of the value chain: the reading device the Kindle Fire and the distribution online channel.

Amazon just started giving all authors, whether it publishes them or not, direct access to the Nielsen BookScan sales data, which records how many physical books they are selling in individual markets (cities). It represents a one-on-one communication between authors and their fans that used to happen only on book tours. Recently, Amazon made an obscure German historical novel a best seller without a single professional review.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/17/technology/amazon-rewrites-the-rules-of-book-publishing.html?pagewanted=all

Louis Rhéaume
Infocom Intelligence
louis@infocomintelligence.com

Quebecor: some recent great news

[Published originally on SUNDAY, MARCH 13, 2011]

Quebecor (QBR-B.TO or QBCAF.PK) is a company in the Consumer discretionary sector and Publishing industry. It operates media businesses primarily through subsidiary Quebecor Media Inc. with activities in cable distribution, residential and business telecommunications, newspapers, broadcasting, retailing of books, magazines and videos, publishing and distribution, recording and distribution of music, the Internet and new media.

Fundamentals
Market Cap 2.3B Beta 0.19
Revenue (FYR) $3.8B EPS (TTM) $4.05
Shares Out. 64.3M Book Value $18.20
Dividend Yield 0.57% P/E 8.7x
Div/Share $0.20 Price/Sales (FYR) 0.6
Ex-Div Date 11/24/10 P/Cash Flow (TTM) 2.3x
Pay Date 12/21/10 Operating Margin 33.77%
Data delayed at least 15 minutes.

Segmented Data: 12 months ended Dec. 31/09
Revenue by industry
News media: 27.2%
Leisure & entertainment: 8.1%
Interactive technologies: 2.4%
Broadcasting: 11.6%
Telecommunications: 52.9%
Head office & intersegment: -2.3%

Operating income by industry
News media: 15.6%
Leisure & entertainment: 2.0%
Interactive technologies: 0.3%
Broadcasting: 6.3%
Telecommunications: 76.2%
Head office & intersegment: -0.4%

Capital expenditures by industry
News media: 6.8%
Leisure & entertainment: 0.7%
Interactive technologies: 0.6%
Broadcasting: 3.3%
Telecommunications: 87.8%
Head office: 0.8%
Forecasts provided by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S – Updated weekly

Consensus Recommendation of 13 Analysts Buy
Consensus Target Price of 13 Analysts $43.50

Dvai Ghose of Canaccord Genuity has a buy rating on the stock relying mostly on its medium to long-term prospects.

The stock is facing more competitive pressures and some segments are reaching maturity. Thus cable margins are near its peak, but cable telephony still has some potential. The cyclical recovery in the media advertising is also near its peak. Free cash flows are decreasing because of important capital investments in a 3.5G+ wireless network. Cash flows went from $321M in 2009 to $175M in 2010 (forecast). Mr. Ghose expects cash flows per share of $1.30 to $2.25 in 2011, $3.13 in 2012 and $4.11 in 2013.

Per Share Data QBR.B Industry

Earnings (TTM) $4.05 $1.89
Book Value $18.20 $17.97

Valuation

Price/Earnings 8.7x 15.4x
Price/Sales (FYR) 0.6x 1.6x
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.9x 2.6x
Price/Cash Flow (TTM) 2.3x 12.4x

Profitability (TTM)

Gross Margin 18.24% 9.94%
Operating Margin 33.77% 21.65%
Profit Margin 14.18% 8.09%
Mgmt Effectiveness (TTM)
Return on Assets 8.99% 6.77%
Return on Equity 26.87% 12.17%
Return on Investment 14.19% 8.39%
Dividend (TTM)
Annual Dividend Rate 0.20 0.64
Dividend Yield 0.57% 2.26%
Payout Ratio 0.1x 0.7x
Financial Strength (MRQ)
Debt to Capital 61.49% 29.28%
Current Ratio 1.0x 1.5x
Quick Ratio 0.7x 0.8x

Size

Market Cap $2.3B $1.0B
Revenue $3.8B $19.8B
Shares Outstanding 64.3M 631.3M
Employees 15,710 75,377

Mr. Ghose forecasts that Quebecor could increase significantly the dividend (actually $0.20$ per share) in 2012 and suggests a price target of $45. With an actual price of $34.90 it would represent a 29% return. The valuation measures compared to industry are much lower while profitability measures are higher. Furthermore, price the target of Mr. Ghose was made before two important press releases Quebecor this week.

1. Quebecor and its journalist ended a 2 years lock-out at Journal de Montréal, where the employer won important concessions from the employees (i.e. from 260 employees it would now be 62).

2. Since today, it is officially involve in the construction of a new arena in Quebec City where they will be the name sponsor and the manager of the building. They are betting on the acquisition of a NHL franchise and could make important benefits from events at the arena. Evenko, the event company of the Montreal Canadiens’ owners (Molson family) is making a lot of money in the second most used arena in North America (Bell Centre). The investment is $33M for the name without a hockey team and an annual rent of $3.15M or $63.5M with a hockey team and an annual rent of $5M.

With a better product portfolio of smartphones, Videotron (telephony division) will obtain more subscribers in the Canadian market, which is also one of the most expensive markets in the world for wireless packages. Cable telephony is still also in the growth stage. Investments in capital expenditures for the wireless networks is reducing Earnings per Share, but it is temporary.

Louis Rhéaume
Infocom Intelligence
Louis@infocomintelligence.com

Article on McGraw-Hill valuation, published on Seeking Alpha

[Published originally on MONDAY, FEBRUARY 07, 2011]

One of my article has been published exclusively on Seeking Alpha:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/251218-assessing-mcgraw-hill-companies-valuation

Louis Rhéaume
Infocom Intelligence
louis@infocomintelligence.com

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